Thom Hogan's voorspellingen voor 2009
Geplaatst: ma nov 17 2008 3:43 pm
Bron:
2009 Nikon Predictions by Thom Hogan
So what do I expect product-wise in 2009? Here goes:
* Something not called a D3x: probably announced in late 2008, but certainly announced in early 2009 and shipped by the March timeframe.
o D3-type body, new Nikon FX high resolution sensor
o At least 24mp
o 5fps
o If this is indeed in the D3 body as I expect, then I will also predict a D700-type body version of it about a year afterwards; Nikon likes using sensors in more than one body
* D60 Redux: an updated replacement for the D60, announced in spring and shipped shortly thereafter
o The 12mp or 14mp Sony sensor (outside chance of a Nikon 12-14mp sensor)
o CAM1000 focus sensor
o Live View and Movie mode
* A limited edition Nikon: likely a D3 sensor in an SP-like camera, but a possibility of a D3 sensor in a Nikon F 50th anniversary body. Potentially both.
o Likely a 10,000 copy run, mostly sold in Japan
o Very high price, probably the highest-priced Nikon ever
* D400: D300 replacement announced very late in the year if at all in 2009
o 14-16mp Nikon DX sensor
o Better Live View, plus Movie modes
* Nikkors:
o Yes, another DX consumer zoom. This time a 18-70mm AF-S VR or perhaps a 18-135mm AF-S VR.
o 80-400mm f/4-5.6 VR AF-S. Finally.
o 70-200mm AF-S VR II N redesign.
o An FX mid-range zoom, probably with modest aperture (i.e. f/4 or variable).
o More prime updates. 28mm, 85mm, 200mm Micro-Nikkor.
* Coolpix:
o I'm not sure it's worth doing much predicting here, as Nikon certainly isn't getting the ball out of the infield with their Coolpix efforts, but I'll once again predict that the long-expected APS Coolpix makes a debut. One curious problem for Nikon is that Panasonic is buying Sanyo, and Sanyo has been Nikon's traditional compact contract maker. I've been harping on Nikon for a long time for not investing enough into their Coolpix line. With Panasonic muscling into their realm, it's time now for Nikon to really jump on compacts and make them their own rather than taking base designs and tweaking them.
* Other:
o You'll note that I haven't mentioned "larger than FX" yet. I'm not convinced that Nikon will pull the trigger on their monster cam. They've certainly worked on one. They've developed marketing and advertising presentations of how they might launch something like that. The Leica S2 adds a bit of urgency to the decision, as it lives exactly in the same space (though at a much higher price). The problem is the economy and the success of the D3. Simply put, a new high-end Nikon (say, larger-framed D4), either has to be a supplement to the D3, which is now the darling of PJ and sports, or it has to be as good as the D3 at everything the D3 does plus give more pixels. And Nikon needs to charge more for this thing (a larger than FX sensor is not cheap), so the economy is a factor, too.
o There's a pretty good chance that we'll see Nikon increment things that you didn't think needed incrementing. Take the D90, for example. I wouldn't be surprised by a D90s, with the s being the better fleshing out of the video features.
o If you haven't already figured it out, the SB-600 is due for a refresh. With the demise of the SB-800 and the huge size of the SB-900 there's a flash gap that's a little problematic. I don't know if Nikon will go all the way and refresh the entire line (SB-400, SU-800, and SB-R200) all at once, but I think we'll see more happening in the flash lineup than just another flash refresh.
o Capture NX3 appears and guess what, it has a new user interface that people might actually think is okay.
2009 Nikon Predictions by Thom Hogan
So what do I expect product-wise in 2009? Here goes:
* Something not called a D3x: probably announced in late 2008, but certainly announced in early 2009 and shipped by the March timeframe.
o D3-type body, new Nikon FX high resolution sensor
o At least 24mp
o 5fps
o If this is indeed in the D3 body as I expect, then I will also predict a D700-type body version of it about a year afterwards; Nikon likes using sensors in more than one body
* D60 Redux: an updated replacement for the D60, announced in spring and shipped shortly thereafter
o The 12mp or 14mp Sony sensor (outside chance of a Nikon 12-14mp sensor)
o CAM1000 focus sensor
o Live View and Movie mode
* A limited edition Nikon: likely a D3 sensor in an SP-like camera, but a possibility of a D3 sensor in a Nikon F 50th anniversary body. Potentially both.
o Likely a 10,000 copy run, mostly sold in Japan
o Very high price, probably the highest-priced Nikon ever
* D400: D300 replacement announced very late in the year if at all in 2009
o 14-16mp Nikon DX sensor
o Better Live View, plus Movie modes
* Nikkors:
o Yes, another DX consumer zoom. This time a 18-70mm AF-S VR or perhaps a 18-135mm AF-S VR.
o 80-400mm f/4-5.6 VR AF-S. Finally.
o 70-200mm AF-S VR II N redesign.
o An FX mid-range zoom, probably with modest aperture (i.e. f/4 or variable).
o More prime updates. 28mm, 85mm, 200mm Micro-Nikkor.
* Coolpix:
o I'm not sure it's worth doing much predicting here, as Nikon certainly isn't getting the ball out of the infield with their Coolpix efforts, but I'll once again predict that the long-expected APS Coolpix makes a debut. One curious problem for Nikon is that Panasonic is buying Sanyo, and Sanyo has been Nikon's traditional compact contract maker. I've been harping on Nikon for a long time for not investing enough into their Coolpix line. With Panasonic muscling into their realm, it's time now for Nikon to really jump on compacts and make them their own rather than taking base designs and tweaking them.
* Other:
o You'll note that I haven't mentioned "larger than FX" yet. I'm not convinced that Nikon will pull the trigger on their monster cam. They've certainly worked on one. They've developed marketing and advertising presentations of how they might launch something like that. The Leica S2 adds a bit of urgency to the decision, as it lives exactly in the same space (though at a much higher price). The problem is the economy and the success of the D3. Simply put, a new high-end Nikon (say, larger-framed D4), either has to be a supplement to the D3, which is now the darling of PJ and sports, or it has to be as good as the D3 at everything the D3 does plus give more pixels. And Nikon needs to charge more for this thing (a larger than FX sensor is not cheap), so the economy is a factor, too.
o There's a pretty good chance that we'll see Nikon increment things that you didn't think needed incrementing. Take the D90, for example. I wouldn't be surprised by a D90s, with the s being the better fleshing out of the video features.
o If you haven't already figured it out, the SB-600 is due for a refresh. With the demise of the SB-800 and the huge size of the SB-900 there's a flash gap that's a little problematic. I don't know if Nikon will go all the way and refresh the entire line (SB-400, SU-800, and SB-R200) all at once, but I think we'll see more happening in the flash lineup than just another flash refresh.
o Capture NX3 appears and guess what, it has a new user interface that people might actually think is okay.
